Recent trade realignments are reshaping the global supply chain landscape, bringing heightened risks for companies relying on predictable shipping routes and dependable suppliers. From ongoing territorial disputes and economic sanctions, to newly formed regional trade alliances, these geopolitical pressures can disrupt logistics networks, alter raw material flows, and strain just-in-time manufacturing models.
- President Donald Trump’s proposed 25 percent tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, to include 10 percent for Canadian energy and an additional 10 percent on Chinese goods, aims to address illegal immigration and fentanyl issues but are likely to disrupt global supply chains.
- Canada and Mexico secured a one-month postponement of the tariffs, but the situation remains fluid. Some U.S. importers likely “pulled forward” inventory in anticipation of potential supply chain disruptions, as indicated by higher container volumes arriving at ports.
We assess companies are likely to face heightened risks of delays on essential goods and renegotiated trade deals may disrupt shipping and supply chains, further impacting their operations. Tariffs could also motivate some companies to shift production out of China to alternative manufacturing hubs such as Vietnam, Taiwan, or India.
- Crucial commodities such as autos, electronics, and oil could face the largest impact, illustrating the impact of tariff policies on freight flows and multinational business decisions.
- If tariff battles persist or intensify, the global manufacturing landscape could undergo a structural shift, with reduced dependence on China and rising industrial capacity in Southeast Asia and South Asia.
Key Recommendations and How Concentric Can Help
For companies navigating these complex and very fluid challenges, we recommend the following best practices for security teams. Concentrics’ team of intelligence and security professionals can help you mitigate potential risks to your business and operations by:
- Supply Chain Intelligence: Continually monitoring and regularly tracking events, such as changing sanctions or trade treaties, that could affect major routes or suppliers.
- Concentric offers continuous monitoring to track incidents and emerging threats in real-time using our 24/7 Global Security Operations Center (GSOC). This monitoring can support ad hoc needs for corporate security teams or be used to monitor high-threat events and executive travel.
- Contingency Planning: Map out multiple logistics options in advance, so shipments can be quickly redirected if a primary route is compromised, and secondary or tertiary suppliers capable of stepping in if main providers are cut off by unforeseen regulatory changes or conflicts.
- Our intelligence team monitors and researches inside the surface and deep and dark web to provide regular intelligence reports on risks to clients, to include executives, their family members, locations, and employees. We monitor specific threats, assets, and groups and extract conversations and trends to alert the client of emerging trends and threats. We can also provide logistical and evacuation support in emergency situations.
- Resilience-Building Measures: Maintain strategic stockpiles of critical components to mitigate delays, especially in industries heavily reliant on just-in-time processes.
- Concentric’s risk assessments are designed to surface key trends and patterns in order to develop a comprehensive risk profile. Our team of analysts look at social media footprints, conduct sentiment analysis, search for online disclosure of personal information, and check for exposure on the deep and dark web.
By adopting a structured approach to risk intelligence and integrating contingency measures into day-to-day operations, companies can reduce the shock of geopolitical disruptions. While no strategy can entirely eliminate the possibility of trade upheavals or resource bottlenecks, Concentric is here to help with robust planning that helps ensure your organizations remain agile and can pivot swiftly when traditional routes and suppliers face unexpected challenges.
