The India-Pakistan Conflict and the Impact to Business in the Region
On April 22, 2025, the Resistance Front, an organization widely assessed as a proxy for Lashkar-e-Taiba, attacked Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir, killing 26 civilians. India blamed Pakistan, reigniting long-standing hostilities. In response, New Delhi launched “Operation Sindoor,” a series of targeted airstrikes against alleged militant infrastructure across the border. Pakistan retaliated, leading to a brief but intense escalation between the two nuclear-armed neighbors and creating ongoing concerns for business interests and travel in the region.
Beyond the immediate safety concerns, heightened military tensions and the potential for further unrest may disrupt logistics, slow down cross-border trade, and complicate access to critical infrastructure.
Periods of heightened alert between India and Pakistan often lead to abrupt airspace closures, border shutdowns, and strict security measures. These disruptions delay cargo movement, restrict staff mobility, and reduce access to critical infrastructure.
Regional Tensions Remain Likely
Looking ahead, tensions between India and Pakistan are likely to resurface. The long-standing disputes, particularly over Kashmir, are deeply entrenched in political rhetoric and national identity. The recent exchange of missile strikes has not only reignited hostilities, but also triggered a strategic recalibration by both nations which is likely to result in intermittent flare-ups, cross-border skirmishes, and increased militarization.
India strengthened its defense posture and bolstered its relationships with regional alliances, while Pakistan has expanded diplomatic engagement with key partners, including China and the Gulf states.
India announced it will permanently withhold the Indus Waters Treaty and divert water from the western rivers towards rivers in India. Pakistan officials branded any unilateral blockage as tantamount to “an act of war” and are exploring legal countermeasures.
The presence of nuclear arms by both nations makes open warfare unlikely in the near term, although the risk of miscalculation or proxy escalation remains a significant concern—particularly for foreign businesses, investors, and travelers operating in the region.
Risk Outlook for Businesses
While full scale conflict remains unlikely in the immediate term, ongoing hostilities have created an increased risk environment for business operations and travel. In addition, terrorist groups in the region have targeted civilian and economic infrastructure during periods of escalated tension.
During the missile exchanges, India closed 27 airports, leading to the cancellation of over 430 flights . Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian carriers and suspended trade, significantly driving up logistics complexity and cost . These disruptions directly affected business travel and freight operations, forcing companies to reroute shipments and extend delivery timelines.
India experienced over 700 attempted cyber intrusions, targeting banking, telecoms, and power sectors, underscoring the growing digital threat for businesses in the region . While many attacks were deflected, financial institutions activated business continuity plans, and critical infrastructure providers strengthened defensive postures.
High-profile business hotels, airports, and corporate offices in northern India may implement tighter security protocols, occasionally causing delays or restricted access. Additionally, urban centers in India and Pakistan may see politically charged protests, especially near embassies, government buildings, or foreign consulates, with some demonstrations posing a risk of localized violence or travel disruption.
In May, India’s Bureau of Civil Aviation Security issued directives enhancing security at airports, including restrictions on visitor entry and recommendations for earlier arrival times.
While there are currently no major protests scheduled in either country for the foreseeable future, the potential for politically charged demonstrations remains high, especially if tensions between the two countries reignite. Urban centers could see localized unrest near government buildings or foreign embassies.
How Concentric Can Help
Business travelers should remain alert in the coming months and monitor local media and embassy advisories. While day-to-day operations in major urban centers remain largely stable, the potential for abrupt escalations and localized security incidents warrants prudent planning and enhanced situational awareness. Concentric’s team of intelligence analysts are monitoring the situation and are here to help. We offer the following services to meet your business and personal needs:
Travel Risk Assessments and Alerting: Concentric offers customized reports offering real-time, itinerary-focused evaluations of changing geopolitical, security, and environmental conditions. We also offer tailored, real-time intelligence based on travelers’ live locations and planned movements.
OSINT and Deep and Dark Web Monitoring: Concentric provides 24/7 surveillance of open source and hidden digital channels, delivering timely insights on emerging risks and security threats.
Evacuation & Contingency Planning: Concentric’s team of intelligence and security professionals offer logistical support for crisis management, including detailed evacuation route mapping, identification of secure shelters, and localized assistance during emergencies.
Through Concentric’s advanced geopolitical intelligence strategies, businesses can effectively navigate travel risks, safeguard their personnel, and ensure operational continuity across global environments. For more information or to arrange a consultation to enhance your organization’s travel security capabilities, please contact our Global Intelligence team today.