Syria Special Report - Security and Sectarian Violence
Concentric assesses Syria to be a highly fragmented country. The transitional government, composed of former jihadist extremists, has attempted to assert control while minority groups have resisted. Despite initial signs of recovery, international political engagement, and public disavowal of the former regime and jihadism, significant concerns are emerging over escalating sectarian conflict and the continuation of Syria as a failed state. We recommend anyone traveling to the region or with business interests conduct rigorous, up-to-date risk assessments before travel, engage in physical security throughout their time in Syria, and monitor local media for significant changes in the security situation.
OVERVIEW
Syria's persistent fragmentation and slow reconstruction process have raised the potential for continued sectarianism. The country remains politically decentralized and maintains a weak security structure with limited centralized command and control. The violence used by government and aligned forces on minorities is likely to entrench sectarian conflict and force minorities to prioritize self-defense over integration.
SECTARIAN CONFLICT DEVELOPMENTS
In late November 2024, the Turkish-backed islamist jihadist Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), along with the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and other opposition groups, deposed the Assad-regime in an 11-day offensive. Following the overthrow of Assad, the leader of HTS, Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa (nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al-Julani), became the de facto and then appointed president of Syria.
Alawite minority - Latakia Province
In March 2025, two months after al-Sharaa was appointed president, the former Assadist Alawites, located primarily in Latakia province, launched an attack on the newly formed government. The government counter attacked and suppressed the uprising, engaging in indiscriminate violence against the Alawite community at large. The Alawites were perceived as uniformly Assad supporters by the government forces, which was a significant contributory factor in the resulting violence.
A U.N. report found the government forces tortured and killed 1,400 civilians in various massacres.
The Alawite community has also suffered a lack of adequate government protection with criminals and militias targeting them with killings and kidnappings, according to open source reporting.
Druze minority - as Suwayda
The Druze are a religious minority in Syria, primarily located in as Suwayda Governate region and the Golan Heights. The Druze have historically faced persecution in Syria and throughout the region because locals view them as non-Muslim in spite of their Shia Islam roots. After the violence in Latakia, conflict occurred in areas with significant Druze populations, perpetrated by government forces and Sunni tribal militia. The violence has reduced in intensity but, as of August 2025, has resulted in more than 1,000 casualties and remains ongoing. Incidents this year include:
On July 13, fighting reignited as Druze militias were attacked by Bedouin forces, government troops, and subsequently Islamic State militants.
On July 11, Bedouins kidnapped a Druze merchant, triggering retaliatory kidnappings.
From May to July, the conflict resulted in Druze massacres by Syrian government forces and Bedouin militias and Bedouin massacres perpetrated by Druze militias.
On April 28, following allegations a Druze cleric circulated a blasphemous audio recording, significant armed engagements occurred in Jaramana and eventually across Suwayda Governate between Sunni Bedouin militia allied with government security forces and Druze militias.
In April, during six days of fighting, local citizens accused Ministry of Defense forces of executing civilians.
In February, Druze gunmen attacked government forces in the ethnically mixed city Jaramana, resulting in two days of minor skirmishes and the killing of two government security members.
Kurdish minority - Deir ez-Zor and Aleppo
The Kurds are an ethnic minority located in Syria, Türkiye, Iran, and Iraq and have faced significant persecution in Syria and Türkiye. During the civil war, the Kurds established an autonomous region in the northeast of the country and remain present in significant numbers in Aleppo. During the Syrian civil war, Kurdish forces fought against the Islamic State, Turkish-aligned and proxy groups and Assad government forces.
In March 2025, the U.S. brokered an agreement in which the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) will integrate with the al-Sharaa government forces.
Map represents the ethnic & religious distribution in Syria.
OUTLOOK AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Looking ahead, the security environment in Syria remains highly volatile. Initial optimism following the fall of Assad has given way to endemic sectarianism. Multiple flashpoints involving minority groups reinforce the view they must rely on self-defense due to government failings. Widespread access to light, medium, and heavy weapon systems for minority groups makes further sectarian violence likely.
The emerging conflict between Kurds and Bedouin forces is also expected to escalate in the short term, potentially drawing in government forces against the Kurds, which, if it mirrors previous government actions against minority groups, would result in further crimes against civilians.
Localized sectarian incidents across government- and opposition-held areas continue, increasing displacement risks and suggesting a wider arc of volatility through 2025. Renewed conflicts in Suwayda and Deir ez-Zor are likely to raise the chance of opportunistic ISIS activity and further harm to civilians.
The U.S. State Department maintains its Level 4 – Do Not Travel advisory, terrorism, civil unrest, kidnapping, hostage taking, and armed conflict. Concentric recommends the following steps for anyone planning travel to Syria or the broader region in the coming months:
Prior to travel, it is critical to conduct comprehensive risk assessments, secure reliable intelligence on political, criminal, and infrastructure-related risks, and coordinate movements with trusted local contacts or authorities.
Ensure appropriate insurances are in place prior to any travel, which should include adequate kidnap ransom extortion coverage.
Private security support is also strongly advised for personal safety and logistical coordination. Travelers should maintain a discreet profile, limit movements during evening hours, and ensure reliable, pre-vetted transportation is used at all times.
Travel tracking tools and secure communication channels should be employed so movements are monitored in real time by a designated security contact.
While on the ground, visitors should dress conservatively, avoid displays of wealth, and minimize solo movements. If confronted with a robbery or threat, disengaging and moving to safety should take precedence over resistance. Remaining alert to the possibility of armed groups impersonating security personnel is essential for mitigating risks.
HOW CONCENTRIC CAN HELP
Given Syria’s complex and volatile operating environment, Concentric offers a suite of services designed to mitigate risks and enable secure business operations:
Travel Risk Assessments and Alerting: Concentric offers customized reports offering real-time, itinerary-focused evaluations of changing geopolitical, security, and environmental conditions. We also offer tailored, real-time intelligence based on travelers’ live locations and planned movements.
Physical Security: Concentric’s team of security professionals provide full executive and close protection security options for those travelling to high risk environments.
OSINT and Deep and Dark Web Monitoring: Concentric provides 24/7 surveillance of open source and hidden digital channels, delivering timely insights on emerging risks and security threats.
Evacuation & Contingency Planning: Concentric’s team of intelligence and security professionals offer logistical support for crisis management, including detailed evacuation route mapping, identification of secure shelters, and localized assistance during emergencies.
Through Concentric’s advanced geopolitical intelligence strategies, businesses can effectively navigate travel risks, safeguard their personnel, and ensure operational continuity across global environments. For more information or to arrange a consultation to enhance your organization’s travel security capabilities, please contact our Global Intelligence team today.